Geoeconomics of Irregular Warfare: Iran and the Global Ripple Effects — Part IX

In Part Nine of Irregular Warfare Initiative’s special series on the conflict with Iran, presented by the Economic & Legal Warfare Team, Hamlet Yousef (IWI Economic & Legal Warfare Advisor), Matt Flug (Co-Director, Economic & Legal Warfare Project, IWI), Tom Johansmeyer (Co-Director, Economic & Legal Warfare Project, IWI), and Ioannis (Gianni) Koskinas (CEO, Hoplite Group) assess the recently announced memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran and explore what it may—or may not—signal about the prospects for a broader agreement. Moderated by Hamlet Yousef, the discussion examines the strategic, economic, and regional dynamics shaping the next phase of the conflict.

The panel explores competing interpretations of the agreement, the challenges of negotiating with multiple stakeholders across the region, and the role of sanctions relief as both a diplomatic tool and a source of leverage. The conversation also examines Hezbollah’s importance within Iran’s broader network of regional partners, the strategic significance of Lebanon, and the ways Tehran continues to leverage influence, relationships, and long-term positioning across the Middle East.

The discussion concludes with an assessment of the Strait of Hormuz as an instrument of economic coercion, the implications of maritime disruption for global trade and energy markets, and the growing role of economic warfare as a strategic tool. As the ceasefire period continues and negotiations unfold, the panel considers whether the current framework represents a pathway toward a lasting agreement or simply a pause before the next phase of competition.