IW Weekly - 28 June 2026

IW Weekly - 28 June 2026
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IRREGULAR WARFARE WEEKLY
Keep Warfare Irregular
June 28, 2026
 
This Week

The Iran war's aftermath dominates this week — eight items spanning nuclear deterrence limits, West Point MWI's operational takeaways, IRGC drone swarming against a downed U.S. pilot, post-Khamenei security dynamics, and competing assessments of reconstitution versus irreversible damage. Running parallel: the drone and autonomy revolution reshaping every theater: Ukraine's blockade of Crimea, the landmark Moscow refinery strike, U.S. unmanned vessel escorts in Philippine drills, new Pacific drone units.

Underneath both runs a single problem: states that cannot sustain forces or narratives at distance will lose before the kinetic fight is decided.

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Featured 🞗 Irregular Warfare Podcast
The Wars Nuclear Weapons Don't Prevent
The Wars Nuclear Weapons Don't Prevent

This episode examines how nuclear weapons shape the way great powers fight. The guests discuss why indirect conflict is so attractive in an era of nuclear risk, how this logic applies to Ukraine and Taiwan, and what it means for US-China competition. They also consider whether the United States is adequately preparing for the kinds of conflicts it is most likely to face: not large-scale conventional wars, but persistent competition through indirect conflict.

Listen to the episode →
Editor's Picks
Five reads, if you only have ten minutes.
1 The Hidden Systems of Modern War: Ten Takeaways from the Iran War

Rare post-conflict operational synthesis from a credible institution while lessons are still actionable.

2 China Could Win Taiwan Without Fighting

Reframes the Taiwan threat from invasion to coercive fait accompli — a harder problem to deter

3 Train to Lie: Small-Unit Deception on a Transparent Battlefield

Addresses a neglected TTPs gap: how units survive and deceive when everything is observable

4 Mobilization as Deterrence: The Strategic Case for a Big Lift 2.0

Argues industrial mobilization signals resolve before conflict — directly relevant to Pacific and European planning

5 Leaked Files Show Russia's Plan to Influence AI and Search Results

Primary-source evidence of Russian cognitive warfare infrastructure targeting the information environment at scale

 
The Full Scan
Everything else worth your attention this week.
Events

Defense of the Homeland: Maritime & Transportation in IW — July 14 - 15; Miami

Book Release: Lethal Autonomy: The Future of Warfare Whether We Like It or Not — June 25; DC

Sixteenth Annual South China Sea Conference — July 7; DC

Strategic Resources in Competition: Rare Earths & Critical Minerals — July 21-22; Reston, VA

Global Information Summit Australia 2026 — July 21-24; Adelaide, Australia

African Logistics and Communications Symposium — July 26-31; Ethiopia

Irregular Warfare in the Homeland, IWC Symposium — August 4-6; Arlington, VA

Indo-Pacific Irregular Warfare Symposium — August 18-20; Honolulu

Introducing APEX 2026 - IPA — September 8-9; Reston, VA

NATO Annual CIMIC Foresight Conference — September 14-18; The Hague

SAVE THE DATE: Inaugural Narrative Strategy Symposium — September 30; DC

Global SOF in Europe Conference — October 6-8; Rome

Future of War Conference — October 26-28; Netherlands

Tactical Trauma 2026 — November 2-4; Sweden

Int’l Conference of the Society for Terrorism Research — December 9-11; Sydney, Australia

Medicine In the Mediterranean 2027 — January 29-31, 2027; Malta

Phoenix Challenge London 2027 — March 9-11, 2027; London

Have an event to highlight? Send details to mick@stratagemconsultingllc.com.

Podcasts

The Truth About Women in Combat – Cultural Support Teams

Cracks in the Armor: Russia’s Military Struggles and the G7 Aftermath

Why Should We Care How Indo-Pacific Allies Manage a Volatile and Distracted America

In Moscow's Shadows - The Fall of Antikvar

The Aftershocks of the Iran War

Vietnam’s Evolving Foreign Policy

Iran Survived. Now What?

Assessing Xi’s Visit to North Korea

Logistics, Landpower, and Large-Scale Combat

IW Broadly

Effective Narrative Strategies in Conflicts: A Deep Dive into Narrative Warfare

Irregular Warfare: Winning the Cognitive Domain

Construction Starts on First Arctic Cutter in Finland, Expansion of U.S. Icebreaking Fleet

Success-Induced Orientation Collapse

Logistics / Medical

Ukraine’s new drone strategy is mauling Russian supply lines

For Marines in the Pacific, logistics remains the toughest fight

U.S. Army Uses Drone Boats to Escort Logistics Craft in Philippine Drill

Conquering the ‘tyranny of distance’ with military healthcare in the Pacific

Good Medicine Is Combat Power: Clinical Innovation and the Lessons of the RUS-UKR War

Pediatric Trauma in Denied Environments

Adapt or Die - How Ukraine is Rewriting Combat Medicine

Deployed Medicine

A Surgeon's Story: The Evolution of Battlefield Vascular Surgery

Drones / Autonomy

Ukraine’s drone hunters can’t keep up with Russia’s fastest drones

Moscow Refinery Attack Is A Landmark In Complex Drone Strikes

RC-135 Rivet Joints Could Control Drones To Drastically Expand Collection Capabilities

Army looks to small UGVs as Ukraine war reshapes battlefield robotics

Regional Focus
Latin America/Caribbean

Strategic considerations for U.S. strikes against terrorists in Latin America

Cartels, TCOs & Compliance In Latin America

The recent US-Venezuelan strike on Tren de Aragua will reverberate across Latin America

Cartels Thrive on Corruption, Not Just Drug Trafficking

What's Going On in Venezuela?

Africa

Could the United States Make a Difference in Mali?

Libya's Opportunity Is Bigger Than Libya Itself

Beyond Ports: China Embeds Itself in Africa's Maritime Networks

Middle East

IRGC-affiliated media says 'no justification' for US talks, urges Hormuz closure

America’s Big Mistake in Iran

Iran Showed Us the Future of Asymmetric Warfare

Downed US pilot reported Iranian drones swarm in ‘jellyfish’ formation

Beyond Proxy Warfare: The Iraq Model of Institutionalized Irregular Competition

Iran's Post-Khamenei Security State: Challenges for U.S. Strategy

What’s Going On In Iran?

Preventing Iran’s Military Reconstitution

Europe/Russia

Russian-occupied Crimea cuts off civilian fuel sales after Ukrainian strikes

The Warrior-Witches of Ukraine’s Resistance

Can Russia secure ‘third power’ status in Southeast Asia with energy push?

NATO conscripts industry to fight Russia’s hybrid aggression

Finland’s Secretive Training Course Prepares Its Elite for War

Russia intensifies shadow war to undermine support for Ukraine

Russia prepares for potential shadow fleet influx to national flag

Rethinking strategic depth in the Baltic States

The Next Russia Threat: Moscow’s Military Power After Ukraine

Ukraine tightens drone blockade of Russian-occupied Crimea

Asia/China

Emphasis on Battlefield Execution Supports 2027 Goal

The US Army Has a New Pacific Command Built for a Complex Fight

U.S. Asymmetric Aid Program Transfers UxS to Philippines, Attack Drone Transfer by 2027

Army’s Newest Unit Aims To “Overwhelm” Adversary With Drones In Pacific Fight

The Red Corridor: The Anatomy of India’s 59-Year-Old Maoist Insurgency

Building Platform For Maritime Cooperation In The Scarborough Shoal

The Inevitability Trap: Cognitive Warfare in the Taiwan Strait

Resources / Books

Axis of Aggressors: Countering the Cooperation of China, Russia, Iran & North Korea

Academic Year 2026–27 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Education / CFP

NATO DIANA | Challenges

2026 Special Operations Research Topics: Academic Year 2027 Addendum

Call for Papers - Information Professionals Association(due July 31)

Papers: “Civil Affairs: Securing the Victory in New Environments”(due September 11)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 101

Ed - Irregular Warfare 201

Ed - Irregular Warfare 301(IW Campaigning)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 110;IW approaches for Homeland Security and Homeland Defense

Ed - Center for Homeland and Defense Studies Self-Study Courses

Job – AFRICOM PSYOP Planner(July 7)

Job - Senior Analyst on China - Hybrid CoE(August 5)

 
This Issue Is Made Possible By
Stratagem Consulting

The IW Weekly is made possible through the generous support of Stratagem Consulting. We're especially grateful to Mick Crnkovich, Founder and CEO of Stratagem, for championing thoughtful, practitioner-oriented resources in the national security space.

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