What lessons has Russia learned from the war against Ukraine, how might this shape their near-term statecraft, and what does this mean for Europe?
Overview
European security discourse focuses on the threat of Russian "hybrid warfare," and the attendant need to build resilience, enhance preparedness, and reconstitute deterrence. Yet mainstream debates are anchored in an outdated view of how Russian statecraft sought to destabilize, demoralize, and subjugate Ukraine via a protracted, multi-generational hybrid campaign. Europe is posturing to defend itself against an expected "second round" from Russia, expecting the same long-term approach employed against Ukraine.
But might Russian strategists take a recalibrated, far more aggressive approach? What if they have realized that protracted hybrid warfare against Ukraine not only failed to deliver a decisive strategic result, but also inadvertently gave the Ukrainian state, military, and society vital time and a shared sense of urgency to harden their defenses — turning Ukraine into a vastly more formidable opponent than it would otherwise have been?
If these lessons have been learned in Moscow, what does this mean for the true nature of the threat facing Europe? Might there be reason to expect rapid, decisive action on the part of the Russian state? What might this look like in an era where the "rules based international order" is unraveling? What should Europe do to manage the threats, and what role is there for the United States in this context?
Featured Speakers
Dr. Olga Chiriac — Director, IWI Europe
Dr. Nick Krohley — Resistance Hub Lead, IWI Europe
Dr. John Pennell — Fellow, IWI Europe
Key Topics:
- The lessons that Russia (may have) taken from its 20+ year campaign against Ukraine
- The realities of European readiness and resolve
- What Russia may have in store for Europe, and how to prepare
- Where does the United States fit into the defense of Europe in 2026
- The potential consequences of "Ukraine fatigue" in Europe and the United States
IWI's Europe Program sits at the intersection of practitioners and scholars, connecting those living the conflict in Ukraine and across Europe with policymakers and operators worldwide. Through initiatives like the Ukraine Hub and the Resistance Hub, IWI's Europe Program offers case‑based, practitioner‑driven learning on topics ranging from territorial defense and civil resistance to strategic communications and cognitive security. The aim is not more abstract commentary, but to treat Europe’s ongoing war as a shared classroom: a place where the United States and its allies can understand how irregular warfare is changing in practice and adapt institutions, doctrine, and partnerships before the next conflict arrives.
Recent Speaker Publications:
- Assessing Russian Actions in Ukraine & Syria, 2014 to 2022: Implications for the Changing Character of War: https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/assessing-russias-actions-in-ukraine-and-syria-20142022-9781666962239/
- The Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation: Implications for Black Sea Security: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-49996-8
- Warrior Diplomats: Civil Affairs Forces on the Front Lines: https://www.cambriapress.com/pub.cfm?bid=979
Photo by Glib Albovsky on Unsplash
