IW Weekly - 23 August 2026

Arctic competition dominates: China's icebreaker buoy deployments, its "quiet conquest" and Northern Sea Route push, and U.S./Norway/UK counter-surveillance in the High North all point to the pole becoming a contested flank. Russia's shadow warfare in Europe—Belarus's expanding role, the Romanian sea-drone incident, Odesa's isolation from the Black Sea—reinforces that gray-zone pressure, not open conflict, remains the operative mode.

Autonomy is the connective tissue: fully autonomous drones reportedly killing in Ukraine, NATO's human-machine targeting debate, Marines' underwater mine-hunting robots, and a SOF general naming autonomous systems as the answer to gray-zone tactics. Layer in cartel network analysis across Mexico, Brazil, and Nigeria, and the throughline is clear—adversaries and criminal networks alike are exploiting distributed, deniable capabilities faster than institutions can govern their use.

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Introducing APEX 2026 - IPA — September 8-9; Reston, VA

NATO Annual CIMIC Foresight Conference — September 14-18; The Hague

SAVE THE DATE: 25 Years After, Lessons From America’s Post-9/11 War — September 15; DC

Modern War Conference 2026: Deterrence in the Pacific — September 24-25; West Point

SAVE THE DATE: Inaugural Narrative Strategy Symposium — September 30; DC

Global SOF in Europe Conference — October 6-8; Rome

Future of War Conference — October 26-28; Netherlands

Tactical Trauma 2026 — November 2-4; Sweden

Int’l Conference of the Society for Terrorism Research — December 9-11; Sydney, Australia

Medicine In the Mediterranean 2027 — January 29-31, 2027; Malta

Phoenix Challenge London 2027 — March 9-11, 2027; London

Have an event to highlight? Send details to mick@stratagemconsultingllc.com.

Building Partner Capacity in an Era of Strategic Competition

Why Should We Care if China Dominates East Asia?

In Moscow, A Political Problem

How GPS Became a Weapon

China’s Struggle for Influence in Central Asia

WTF did the Coast Guard do?!

How Ukraine Fights: Reflections from the Front Lines

Five Years After the Withdrawal: Insights from the Afghanistan War Commission

Cybersecurity Threats in the Age of AI

Why the Army's Messaging About COIN Is Dangerous

Marketplace Unconventional Warfare

AI in Cyber Conflict: Short-term Offensive Opportunities, Long-term Defensive Advantage

Why the Wars Against Iran and Ukraine Can Go On and On and On…

Special Operations Success: Balancing Capabilities and Control

How SOF’s enduring relationships provide value for the Joint Force

What Was the War on Terror?

The Agentic Olympus: The “Gods” of AI in Irregular Cognitive Warfare

America’s Water Systems Are Under Attack. We Are Not Ready.

Contested Logistics and the "Last Unmanned Mile"

Putin's lifeline to Iran

U.S. Navy Orca XLUUV Completes 1,000-Mile Pacific Transit

Stopping the Bleed Through a Pinhole: Endovascular Care in Military Medicine

European Medical Prep for Major Engagements and Large-Scale Combat Operations

Dead Tissue Kills: Early Debridement & Delayed Primary Closure Lessons from the Field

Optimizing the Efficacy of Common Tactical Med Gear and Medications In The Arctic

Marines Field Bayonet Underwater Robots to Hunt Mines and Explosives

NATO’s plan for a drone-infested battlefield: Let AI fly while humans decide who dies

Air Force Wants a Drone Factory in a Box for Remote Deployments

Commodities, Networks and Problematic Projects – China’s Uneven Advance in Chile

Old Paradigms for an Evolving Threat: Rethinking Brazil’s Fight Against Organized Crime

The Math Behind Cartel Recruitment in Mexico

Nigeria's Strategic Relevance to Mexican Drug Cartels

What does the latest UN report reveal about Africa’s jihadist threat?

Mounting Fatalities Linked to Militant Islamist Violence in Africa amid Shifting Tactics

Countering Terrorism Financing in East Africa

Libya's Haftar played key role in release of US hostage held by Islamic State

Iraq's Pro-Iran Militias Can't Be Eliminated

U.S. Special Operations Forces Deploy Near Russia in Western Alaska for Polar Dagger 2026

Commentary: Moscow’s Little Helper — Belarus' Expanding Role in Russia's War

Romania destroys explosive sea drone near gas platform, blames Russia

Unique Norway-UK Cooperation on Maritime Surveillance in the High North

Odesa under attack: Russia is cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea

Ultranationalist Russian church leader, military priests and war vets on Norway border

War Without End: Understanding Russia’s Shadow Warfare

Special ops general says autonomous systems are key to countering ‘gray-zone’ tactics

A Rock and China’s Three-Sea Problem

The Dragon on Ice: China's Quiet Conquest of the Arctic

Securing the Undersea Domain

China completes first stage of work at disputed South China Sea reef

Taiwan’s Urban Resilience Drills Are Becoming a Core Part of Deterrence

The Arctic: China Taking Over the Top of the World

U.S., Canada Monitor Chinese Icebreaker in Arctic as It Deploys Dozens of Observation Buoys

PLA Infantry Tactics

Papers: “Civil Affairs: Securing the Victory in New Environments” (due September 11)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 101 (IW Basics)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 201 (IW Advanced)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 301 (IW Campaigning)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 401 (IW Campaign Design)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 110 (IW approaches for Homeland Security and Homeland Defense)

Ed - Center for Homeland and Defense Studies Self-Study Courses

Strategic Competition | George C. Marshall European Center For Security Studies

USAJOBS – Program Analyst, SO/LIC (due August 31)

USAJOBS – Supervisory Program Manager, SO/LIC (due August 24)

USAJOBS – Supervisory Intel Specialist, SOCCENT (due September 1)

The IW Weekly is made possible through the generous support of Stratagem Consulting. We're especially grateful to Mick Crnkovich, Founder and CEO of Stratagem, for championing thoughtful, practitioner-oriented resources in the national security space.

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