Adaptive Judgment in Irregular Warfare: A Decision-Making Framework for SOF Leaders
Decisions made at the team level under conditions of uncertainty can generate consequences that extend well beyond their immediate tactical effects. As a result, judgment becomes a decisive capability in IW.
Solving the Dilemma: A Leadership Model for Irregular Warfare ('Guerrilla Leader Series' - Part 3 of 3)
“Every intervention begins as a story of liberation. Without adaptation, it ends as a story of occupation.” Why do militarily superior forces consistently win the fight—but lose the peace? This is not a new question. It is the defining paradox of modern irregular warfare. From Vietnam to Afghanistan to
The Strategic Shift: A Leader’s Guide to the Risk to Follower Model (‘Guerrilla Leader Series' - Part 2 of 3)
"Understanding this model is the key to knowing when to lead with decisive action and when to lead with empathetic connection. It is the essential next step in moving beyond short-term tactical success toward long-term strategic victory." In the preceding analysis—the first installment of what
The Guerrilla Leader Theory: A Data-Driven Approach to Winning within the Human Domain (Part 1 of a 3 part series)
Although much of the literature on insurgency and counterinsurgency combat diagnoses population-centric and irregular warfare as primarily political, cultural, or resource problems, this research suggests that warfare within and among populations is, first and foremost, a leadership problem.
Beyond Lethality: The Primacy of Influence in Cognitive Warfare
“The decisive battles of modern warfare are no longer fought primarily on terrain, but in the minds of populations.” Introduction Twentieth-century warfare was defined by industrial-scale lethality: mass mobilization, mechanized destruction, and the pursuit of decisive battlefield supremacy. In contrast, the strategic environment of the twenty-first century
Advancing the SOF Profession: The future of IWI's SOF Focus Area
Since launching in August 2024, the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI) “SOF in Competition Project” has aspired to serve as the intellectual home for Special Operations Forces (SOF). As a retired Army Special Forces officer and leadership scholar, I am proud to have taken over this initiative from its founding director,
The Future of Conflict: How Super-Empowered Populations Will Change Warfare
Though it claims to support local populations in warfare, the US military nonetheless tends toward enemy-centric operational behavior. That is, units spend most of their time focused on destroying the enemy and comparatively little on local civilian populations’ needs, behavior, and interests. This can be said of most American
Bridging the gap between irregular warfare scholars, practitioners, and policymakers.
