IW Weekly - 02 August 2026

China's "Total War on Taipei" cognitive-effects push, Russia's Baltic C2 model, al-Qaeda and ISIS diverging on AI adoption, and Sahel counter-drone/AI teaming all point to the contest moving into perception and algorithms before it moves into kinetics.

The second thread is contested access. Iran's strait-and-island strategy against Gulf partners, Mali's Shahed-type drone strikes, Brazilian-driven shifts in the transatlantic cocaine trade, and Arctic fisheries as a Russian lever all show state and criminal actors squeezing chokepoints and supply lines rather than contesting territory outright — the same logic tying Taiwan's arms-relocation drills to the Philippine coast guard buildup near the South China Sea.

Forwarded this? Subscribe here. If the Weekly is useful to you, become a Community Patron — support a 501(c)(3), join the IW WhatsApp community, gain access to IWI webinars — and help keep this work independent. Join under “Account” when logged in at irregularwarfare.org. Feedback on the format? admin@irregularwarfare.org.

Navigating the Strait of Hormuz Energy Crisis — August 4; DC

Irregular Warfare in the Homeland, IWC Symposium — August 4-6; Arlington, VA

Indo-Pacific Irregular Warfare Symposium — August 18-20; Honolulu

Introducing APEX 2026 - IPA — September 8-9; Reston, VA

NATO Annual CIMIC Foresight Conference — September 14-18; The Hague

SAVE THE DATE: 25 Years After, Lessons From America’s Post-9/11 War — September 15; DC

Modern War Conference 2026: Deterrence in the Pacific — September 24-25; West Point

SAVE THE DATE: Inaugural Narrative Strategy Symposium — September 30; DC

Global SOF in Europe Conference — October 6-8; Rome

Future of War Conference — October 26-28; Netherlands

Tactical Trauma 2026 — November 2-4; Sweden

Int’l Conference of the Society for Terrorism Research — December 9-11; Sydney, Australia

Medicine In the Mediterranean 2027 — January 29-31, 2027; Malta

Phoenix Challenge London 2027 — March 9-11, 2027; London

Have an event to highlight? Send details to mick@stratagemconsultingllc.com.

AUKUS and the New Reality of Indo-Pacific Security

Five Years After the Withdrawal: Insights from the Afghanistan War Commission

Why Should We Care if the Gray Zone War is Heating Up Again in East Asia?

Russia and Ukraine: A Tale of two systems

West Africa: What Does the Climate Crisis Look Like?

Vol. 2, No. 2: Expanding the Battlespace (full issue)

Expanding the Battlespace: Introduction to Volume 2, Number 2 (editor's overview)

Information Operations Against Proxy Warfare: The Case of Iran

Economic Warfare: A Foundation for Twenty-First-Century Strategic Practice

SOF Weekly Update - July 27, 2026

Islamic State sees mixed fortunes in first half of 2026

Cultivating Vulnerability: The IW Against American Farms and America’s Economy

A Roadmap for Enduring Advantage

Beyond Lawrence: Legitimacy in Irregular and Indigenous Warfare

Cognitive Warfare Below the Threshold

Signals Before the Storm: Al-Qaeda's Behavior & Strategic Change

Assessing Info Ecosystems: How Governments Can Get Ahead of Hybrid Threats

The solution to the tanker problem the US military keeps finding in Pacific wargames

Robotic telesurgery in an austere setting

Hard Lessons in Combat Medicine from Ukraine

Edge AI and Sensor Arrays Are Now Triaging SOF Casualties Faster Than Any Medic

Managing Combative Patient: Hyperactive Delirium with Agitation, Ketamine & Field Reality

Manufacturing Med Gear In A War: Aluminum Splints, Plastic Litters & The Human Side Of War

Citizen Sensors: Crowd-Sourcing sUAS Intelligence Using Smartphone Apps

Asymmetric Warfare and Drones: UKR Lessons and Warning for U.S. Critical Infrastructure

Inside Ukraine’s Kill Zone

What happens when AI and information warfare collide

The Sheinbaum Administration's Cautious Engagement with China in Mexico

It’s Time to Try the Kleiman Strategy in Mexico

Hybrid Violence in MEX: Cartels, Tactics, and Impact of 2025 Terrorist Designations

Los Zeta to CJNG: The Ultra-Violent Evolution of Modern Cartels' New Shadowy Underworld

AI enabled terrorism

Climate, Conflict, and Strategic Competition in the Central Sahel

Ai-enabled purple teaming for counter-drone security in Sahel

Extraction under fire: How mining reshapes conflict in the central Sahel

Shahed-Type Drones Filmed During Mali Village Attacks

Destruction is not Strategy

How to reset US-Gulf security partnerships

U.S.-Iran War: A Guide to Iran's Strategic Islands

How Chinese tech and Russian tactics are aiding Iran’s bombing of US bases

Bahrain, Kuwait reportedly carried out secret Iran air strikes

Russia’s C2 of Cognitive Warfare: Lessons from the Baltics

How Russia weaponizes fisheries in the Arctic

Unit 700: The elite Iranian force with Britain in its sights

Why Norway and Finland Should Preserve Europe's Most Important Security Arrangements

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 2026

Geoeconomic Constraint and Autonomy in Mongolia: Taming the Steppe’s Wild Horse

Winning the adaptation race for SOF and Indo-Pacific operations

Three Weeks to Win

India’s Drone Army

Russia is helping China prepare for an airborne assault on Taiwan

Afghanistan's Resistance is No Longer Fighting Only the Taliban

OSINT: Chinese Amphibious Exercise With Ferry

What If the Quarantine of Taiwan Has Already Begun?

Taiwan’s Annual Han Kuang Drill Will Test Military and Society

Winning the War for the Narrative Against China Today

The Loneliest Island: Will America Truly Defend Taiwan?

Taiwan drills to test relocating arms production under Chinese attack

U.S. to Fund Philippine Coast Guard Base Expansion Near South China Sea

Institutionalizing Cognitive Warfare: Strategy, Organization, and National Power

July 2026 - Combating Terrorism Center at West Point

American Intelligence Journal

Axis of Aggressors: Countering the Cooperation of China, Russia, Iran & North Korea

Compromised Coalitions

Review — Comprendre les Gangs en Haïti: Quartiers, Sécurité et Médias

Review - Damn Fine Soldiers

Papers: “Civil Affairs: Securing the Victory in New Environments” (due September 11)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 101 (IW Basics)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 201 (IW Advanced)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 301 (IW Campaigning)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 401 (IW Campaign Design)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 110 (IW approaches for Homeland Security and Homeland Defense)

Ed - Center for Homeland and Defense Studies Self-Study Courses

The Harding Fellowship: A Leadership Opportunity for Army Professionals (due August 15)

The IW Weekly is made possible through the generous support of Stratagem Consulting. We're especially grateful to Mick Crnkovich, Founder and CEO of Stratagem, for championing thoughtful, practitioner-oriented resources in the national security space.

The following organizations support IWI's mission to advance the study of irregular warfare.