IW Weekly - 04 October 2026

IW Weekly - 04 October 2026
IRREGULAR WARFARE WEEKLY
Keep Warfare Irregular
October 4, 2026
 
This Week

Counter-narcotics in the Americas is becoming a military campaign. The Shield of the Americas declaration against nonstate actors, Pentagon escalation against cartels and the Haiti test point the same way. The Iran war is shifting Tehran's influence toward the Houthis and a Red Sea that could become another Hormuz.

Speed of adaptation comes next. Ukraine's robot offensive reversed a year of Russian gains; Army Special Forces graduated its first robotics technicians; one Army command rewrites its drone curriculum every 60 days. Mexican cartels, not to be outdone, are fielding counter-drone systems.

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Irregular Warfare Podcast
The Airpower We Need for Irregular Warfare
The Airpower We Need for Irregular Warfare

Why does handing partner forces aircraft so rarely produce an effective air force? Retired Lt. Gen. Anthony Rock, Michael Horowitz and Col. Tobias Switzer join Kyle Atwell to examine why buying technology does not equal military power, drawing on Switzer's RAND report and lessons from air advising in Iraq and Afghanistan. Topics include prestige aircraft versus cheap, usable platforms, contractor dependence, advisor risk and how to measure success.

Listen to the episode →
Editor's Picks
Five reads, if you only have ten minutes.
1 Evolving Mexican Cartel C-UAS Capabilities

Cartels able to defeat drones complicate any plan to use unmanned systems against them.

2 Another Hormuz? What to Know About the Houthi Threat to the Red Sea

Treats the Red Sea as a second chokepoint crisis. Decisions on shipping, insurance and naval presence follow from that judgment.

3 Ukraine's Innovative Robot Offensive Just Reversed a Year of Russian Gains

Evidence that uncrewed systems can retake ground as well as hold it, which tests every army's robotics plans.

4 The Outsourcing of Security in the M23 Conflict in the DRC

Examines how belligerents hand fighting to contractors and proxies in eastern Congo, which blurs accountability and complicates settlement.

5 The Coming Taiwan Crisis: Use Today's Calm to Prepare for the Next Perfect Storm

Argues the current lull is the time to prepare for a Taiwan crisis, the scenario driving most U.S. Indo-Pacific planning.

 
Focus Areas
The latest from our focus areas.
 
The Full Scan
Everything else worth your attention this week.
Events

How Can NATO Protect Its Front Line From Russia? | October 7; Virtual and DC

25 Years Since the Anthrax Attacks: Where Are We Now? | October 7; Virtual

IW Conceptualization of South and Central America | October 7; Virtual

Sea Change: America's New Great Game in the Arctic Circle | October 8; Virtual and DC

A Historical Overview of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Security Evolution | October 14; Virtual

Future of War Conference | October 26-28; Netherlands

Anchorage Security and Defense Dialogue | October 27-29; Anchorage, AK

China's Power: Up for Debate 2026 | October 28-29; Virtual and DC

Tactical Trauma 2026 | November 2-4; Sweden

Modern Warfare Week 2026 | November 16-19; Fort Bragg, NC

SOF & Irregular Warfare Symposium | December 9-10; Tampa, FL

Int'l Conference of the Society for Terrorism Research | December 9-11; Sydney, Australia

The Strategist: How to Think About War and Politics | January 11, 2027; Virtual

Medicine in the Mediterranean 2027 | January 29-31, 2027; Malta

Special Air Warfare Symposium | February 9-11, 2027; Fort Walton Beach, FL

Phoenix Challenge London 2027 | March 9-11, 2027; London

SOF Week 2027 | May 3-6, 2027; Tampa, FL

Nordic Conference on Violent Extremism | May 13-14, 2027; Helsinki

Have an event to highlight? Send details to mick@stratagemconsultingllc.com.

Podcasts

Iran and the Middle East | Hormuz Offer, Houthi Advance, Saudi Air Support

Inside the Fight for Africa's Minerals

Russia's Bear(s) on the March

Compromised Coalitions: The Paradox of Postconflict Power Sharing in Africa

Offshore Rocket Launchers

When War Doesn't Look Like War: Grey Zone Warfare

IW Broadly

Why Irregular Warfare Matters in the 21st Century?

The Next Little Green Man

SOF Weekly Brief - Sep 28

Al-Qaeda Twenty-Five Years After 9/11: A Changing Network

Logistics / Medical

The War Before the War: Joint Force and Strategic Supply Denial

TCCC Analgesia: After the Opioids Left

Blood Sweep, Deep Breath, Pulse Check: Point-of-Injury Triage

Drones / Autonomy

We Shot the Wrong People: Autonomous Weapons and the Case for Human Judgment

China and the US: The AI and Robotics Revolution and Its Impact on the Rest of the World

US Army Command Updates Its Drone Curriculum Every 60 Days

Army SF Graduate First Batch of Robotics Technician Integrators

Regional Focus
Latin America/Caribbean

The Shield of the Americas Issues a Declaration of War on Nonstate Actors

States of Exception: Criminal Armed Groups and the Evolution of South American Policing

The Trump Corollary's Haiti Test

How the Pentagon Is Escalating the Drug War in Latin America

Africa

All Analysis on Africa

Julyana: Putting Benghazi on the Map

A Decade of EU Support to the G5 Sahel: Assessment of the EU's Security Assistance Toolkit

From Port Sudan to Mekelle: The Birth of an Interlocked War System in the Horn of Africa

Middle East

The Hidden Costs of the Iran War

Iraq Can't Disarm Iran's Militias

Yemen: The Houthis' Role in the Next Evolution of the Axis of Resistance

How the War Is Changing the Geography of Iran's Influence

Europe/Russia

Russia's Intensifying Shadow War Against Europe

RAF Fairford Latest: Incident 'Clearly Involves' Foreign Actor

Asia/China

Withdraw From the First Island Chain?

China Extends Military Reach With New Air Support Base in Laos

An Analysis of the PLA's Political Work System and the Will to Fight

Taipei: Before Beijing Can Govern

Plugging the PRC's Southeast Asian Semiconductor Pipeline

Philippine Resistance Against Japan

Beijing's “Backbone Force” in Manila

Resources / Books

Review: The Architecture of Gold: Red Teaming the Cognitive Battlespace

Review: Polar War: Submarines, Spies, and the Struggle for Power in a Melting Arctic

Compromised Coalitions: The Paradox of Postconflict Power Sharing in Africa

Strategic Disruption in the Deep Fight: SOF from Competition to Armed Conflict

Strategic Sabotage: U.S. SOF Against Adversary Systems

China's Unrestricted Warfare Doctrine and the War America Doesn't Know It's Fighting

The Encyclopedia of Unconventional Warfare

Shock Troops: A Modern Trench Warfare Doctrinal Concept for the Smaller Force

Electronic Warfare Meets Cyber Warfare

Education / CFP

Call for Papers - Nordic Conference on Violent Extremism (due October 9, 2026)

Call for Abstracts - Phoenix Challenge® London 2027 (due November 16, 2026)

Call for Papers - JSOU 2027 (due March 1, 2027)

Changing Character of War Workshop (Application due January 4, 2027)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 101 (IW Basics)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 201 (IW Advanced)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 301 (IW Campaigning)

Ed - Irregular Warfare 110 (IW Approaches for Homeland Security and Homeland Defense)

Ed - Center for Homeland Defense and Security Self-Study Courses

Grey-Zone Warfare in the 21st Century - Oxford Lifelong Learning | Oct 16-Nov 20; Virtual and Oxford

 
This Issue Is Made Possible By
Stratagem Consulting

The IW Weekly is made possible through the generous support of Stratagem Consulting. We're especially grateful to Mick Crnkovich, Founder and CEO of Stratagem, for championing thoughtful, practitioner-oriented resources in the national security space.

 
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The following organizations support IWI's mission to advance the study of irregular warfare.

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