Commercial Pathways and Proxy Power: How Irregular Forces Acquire Advanced Capabilities
In June 2024 Italian customs officials opened shipping containers labeled "wind turbine parts" bound for Libya. Inside were disassembled components for Chinese Wing Loong II drones—the same systems UN investigators had forensically linked to the January 2020 Tripoli military academy strike that killed twenty-six cadets. Four
Geoeconomics of Irregular Warfare: Iran and the Global Ripple Effects — Part IV
In Part Four of Irregular Warfare Initiative’s special series examining the unfolding conflict with Iran, Hamlet Yousef (National Security Investor/ IWI Economic & Legal Warfare Advisor), Ioannis Koskinas (CEO, Hoplite Group), and Tom Johansmeyer (Co-Director, IWI Economic & Legal Warfare Team) analyze the shifting geoeconomic landscape of the
Claimed or Unclaimed: Patterns of Attribution in Global Terrorism
Editor’s Note: this article is being republished with the permission of Small Wars Journal as part of a republishing arrangement between IWI and SWJ. The original article was published on 02.18.2026 and is available here. Despite extensive research on terrorist violence, far less attention has been paid
The Insurance Weapon: How Commercial Risk Logic Became an Irregular Warfare Tool at Hormuz
Before Iran laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz and before the IRGC began striking tankers with drones, the strait had already been effectively closed. Within 48 hours of coordinated U.S.–Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, war risk premiums surged fivefold, major marine insurers terminated existing
The Strategic Shift: A Leader’s Guide to the Risk to Follower Model (‘Guerrilla Leader Series' - Part 2 of 3)
"Understanding this model is the key to knowing when to lead with decisive action and when to lead with empathetic connection. It is the essential next step in moving beyond short-term tactical success toward long-term strategic victory." In the preceding analysis—the first installment of what
The Elder’s Gambit and the Practice of Narrative Warfare
"If one individual can be influenced by activating identity over ideology, then influence in modern conflict is less about information superiority and more about narrative precision." What is more powerful: a learned ideology or an inherited identity? For years, the U.S. national security apparatus has grappled with
Geoeconomics of Irregular Warfare: Iran and the Global Ripple Effects — Part III
In Part Three of Irregular Warfare Initiative’s special series examining the unfolding conflict with Iran, Hamlet Yousef (IWI Economic & Legal Warfare Advisor) and Ioannis Koskinas (CEO, Hoplite Group) unpack the conflict's geoeconomic dimensions and the ripple effects extending across global markets and strategic competition. Moderated by
From Orbit to Objective: Space and the Future of Conflict
Space is no longer a silent backdrop to conflict—it is a contested domain that enables, shapes, and increasingly defines how wars are fought. In this episode, Ben Jebb and Charlie McGillis sit down with Dr. James Kiras and General Stephen Whiting to examine the strategic importance of space in
Friendly Cyber Fire: How Much Did NotPetya Cost Russia?
In June 2017, a cyber attack spread malware across government, utilities, commercial, and financial websites across Ukraine and more than 60 other countries. In February 2018, the UK and US governments attributed the attack, since dubbed "NotPetya," as a Russian military operation. It’s been called (perhaps hyperbolically)
Proof Against the Clock: The Two-Hour Rule for Second Thomas Shoal
Salty air whips across the deck as the Philippine resupply vessel shoulders through turbulent swells, its bow locked onto the skeletal silhouette of the BRP Sierra Madre rusting atop the reef at Second Thomas Shoal. Dawn hasn’t yet fully broken, but the sea gives its warning anyway. Within seconds,
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