What happened October 7, 2023? How was it possible that one of the most battle-tested, technologically advanced, intelligence-capable nations in the world was taken by surprise? What do the lessons learned mean for the irregular warfare community?
This episode of the IWI Fire Side Chats is a discussion about Israeli intelligence culture before and after the events of October 7, 2023.
Our guest
Dr. Itai Shapira is a Brigadier General in the Israeli Defense Intelligence Reserves, with almost three decades of experience as an intelligence manager and analyst at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels. Shapira earned his PhD from the University of Leicester and has published two books about Israeli intelligence culture and strategic culture. Shapira currently works in the private sector, providing strategic intelligence services. He also teaches intelligence studies at Johns Hopkins University.
Host
The conversation was hosted by IWI's Europe Program Director, Dr. Olga R. Chiriac.
Key takeaways
- The Israeli intelligence community is expected to solve problems. While in the US (and the UK) tradecraft and intelligence are mostly considered an intellectual and cognitive effort, in Israel, intelligence is expected to produce pragmatic, actionable, creative solutions to existential problems, not just to understand them.
- All intelligence agencies (Mossad, Shabak, IDI) conduct special operations, not just Mossad. This is a testament to the operations-inclined Israeli strategic culture and intelligence culture. Mossad and Shabak are first and foremost operational agencies, while the IDI has broader roles. Concurrently, Mossad and Shabak provide strategic analysis and advice to the Prime Minister in their own areas of responsibility.
- One conclusion following October 7 is that analytical mistakes come from slips in moral courage, critical thinking, and individual responsibility. Hubris was once again at the core of an intelligence failure.
- Technological advances play a major role in modern warfare and intelligence. Nonetheless, HUMINT, critical thinking, human sources, and human networks in general remain pivotal.
- When it comes to innovation, Israel has a bottom-up and practice-reliant approach of "Innovation through Adaptation."
- The interaction between intelligence and policy in Israel is unique in that intelligence officers are expected to produce concrete recommendations. This occurs at all levels: strategic, operational, and tactical.
- The future of the West depends on how fast we learn the lessons taught by modern battlefields like the one in Israel. We are still exercising hubris, and our adversaries seem to be faster in many ways.
About the Europe Program
Our mission since the inception of IWI has been to bridge the gap between scholars and practitioners to support the community of irregular warfare professionals. With this larger goal in mind, the Europe Program focuses on European and European-adjacent IW theaters.
IWI is a non-partisan forum for irregular warfare scholars and practitioners, and each contributor's work reflects their own views and expertise rather than those of IWI or any government entity.
